Imagine this: the U.S. launches a precision strike against a hostile target in the Middle East. Then another. And another. But after a few dozen sorties, commanders start asking an uncomfortable question—how many missiles do we have left? This isn’t science fiction. It’s a real and growing concern inside the Pentagon. Despite its image of overwhelming firepower, the United States is confronting a quiet but severe US missile shortage—not because of budget cuts, but because of a decades-long neglect of its domestic defense industrial base .
The core of the problem lies in a seemingly obscure component: the solid rocket motor (SRM). These are the engines that power everything from Tomahawk cruise missiles to Patriot air defense interceptors. Without them, even the most advanced warhead is just dead weight. And right now, America simply can’t make enough of them fast enough to meet wartime demands .
Table of Contents
- The Solid Rocket Motor Bottleneck
- Why the US Missile Shortage Matters Now
- From Venezuela to Iran: A Missile-Hungry Strategy
- How Did the US Get Here?
- Can the US Fix It in Time?
- Global Comparisons and Lessons
- Conclusion
- Sources
The Solid Rocket Motor Bottleneck
Solid rocket motors are not like computer chips—they can’t be mass-produced overnight. They require specialized facilities, highly controlled chemical processes, and years of lead time. For decades, the U.S. relied on a near-monopoly supplier: Northrop Grumman, which acquired the last major domestic SRM producer, Orbital ATK, in 2018 .
This consolidation created a single point of failure. Today, the U.S. has only one primary facility capable of producing large tactical SRMs—at a rate of roughly 100–150 per year. In a high-intensity conflict, that stock could vanish in weeks. A 2023 Government Accountability Office (GAO) report warned that current production rates are “insufficient to replenish stocks expended during major combat operations” .
Why the US Missile Shortage Matters Now
With rising threats from Iran, Russia, and China, the U.S. military’s operational plans assume heavy reliance on long-range precision strikes. But simulations show that in a two-front war, the U.S. could exhaust its inventory of key missiles like the JASSM and Tomahawk within 10–14 days .
Consider recent events:
- In the Red Sea, the U.S. Navy has fired dozens of Tomahawks and SM-6 missiles to counter Houthi drone attacks.
- Support for Ukraine has already drained U.S. stocks of ATACMS and Stinger missiles.
- Any escalation with Iran would require hundreds more precision-guided munitions.
Each launch depletes a finite reserve that cannot be quickly refilled.
From Venezuela to Iran: A Missile-Hungry Strategy
U.S. foreign policy under recent administrations has increasingly leaned on stand-off missile strikes as a “low-cost” alternative to troop deployment. Whether it’s signaling resolve in Caracas or deterring Tehran, the go-to tool is often a cruise missile launched from a ship or bomber .
But this strategy assumes an infinite supply of munitions—a dangerous illusion. As one defense analyst put it, “You can’t bluff with an empty quiver.” The current US missile shortage exposes a critical gap between strategic ambition and industrial reality.
How Did the US Get Here?
The roots of this crisis go back to the post-Cold War “peace dividend.” With the Soviet Union gone, defense budgets shrank, and missile production lines were shuttered. Policymakers assumed future wars would be short and surgical, requiring limited munitions.
Compounding the problem:
- Over-reliance on single suppliers reduced competition and innovation.
- Underinvestment in infrastructure left factories outdated and capacity capped.
- Export controls and environmental regulations, while necessary, added years to production timelines.
The result? A system optimized for peacetime efficiency, not wartime resilience.
Can the US Fix It in Time?
The Pentagon is trying. The Biden administration has poured billions into expanding SRM production, including funding new facilities and qualifying secondary suppliers like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon . But building a rocket motor plant takes 5–7 years. Retooling supply chains takes even longer.
Short-term fixes include:
- Stockpiling critical components in advance.
- Accelerating maintenance and recertification of older missiles.
- Partnering with allies like Australia and Japan on co-production.
Yet none of these solve the fundamental capacity constraint. For deeper insights into defense logistics, see our analysis on [INTERNAL_LINK:defense-industrial-base-reform].
Global Comparisons and Lessons
China and Russia never dismantled their missile production ecosystems. China, in particular, maintains a vast, state-driven industrial base capable of churning out thousands of missiles annually . The U.S., by contrast, treats missile production as a commercial activity—subject to market forces and profit margins.
According to a 2025 RAND Corporation study, “The U.S. must treat key munitions as strategic national assets, not just procurement line items” . This shift in mindset is essential to closing the gap.
Conclusion
The US missile shortage is not about running out of bullets—it’s about running out of the very tools that define modern American military dominance. The solid rocket motor crisis is a symptom of a larger disease: the erosion of the defense industrial base. Without urgent, sustained investment and strategic rethinking, the U.S. risks entering its next major conflict with a dwindling arsenal and no way to refill it. In an era of great-power competition, that’s a gamble no nation can afford to take.
Sources
[1] Times of India. (2026, January). From Venezuela to Iran: How America’s missile push is running into a solid rocket motor supply crisis. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/from-venezuela-to-iran-how-americas-missile-push-is-running-into-a-solid-rocket-motor-supply-crisis-explained-us-missile-crisis/articleshow/126549114.cms
[2] U.S. Department of Defense. (2025). Annual Report on Munitions Readiness.
[3] Northrop Grumman. (2025). Solid Rocket Motor Production Capabilities.
[4] U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO). (2023). Defense Industrial Base: Challenges in Missile Production Capacity. https://www.gao.gov
[5] Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2024). Munitions Stockpiles and Great Power War.
[6] Defense News. (2025). Pentagon Accelerates Missile Production Amid Supply Concerns.
[7] IISS Military Balance. (2025). Chinese Missile Force Modernization.
[8] RAND Corporation. (2025). Rebuilding the U.S. Defense Industrial Base. https://www.rand.org