Political tremors are shaking Bihar as a senior minister from the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) faction has dropped a bombshell: multiple Congress MLAs are reportedly on the verge of switching sides to join the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). According to the minister, this potential mass defection is being strategically timed—set to unfold just after the auspicious festival of Makar Sankranti.
If true, this development would mark another significant blow to the Indian National Congress in Bihar, a state where its legislative presence has dwindled to near irrelevance. It would also signal the NDA’s continued success in consolidating opposition voices under its umbrella—a tactic that has defined Bihar’s fluid political landscape in recent years.
Table of Contents
- The LJP(RV) Minister’s Explosive Claim
- Why Makar Sankranti Is a Political Turning Point
- Current Strength of Congress in Bihar Assembly
- NDA’s Strategy of Absorbing Opposition Leaders
- Possible Impact on 2025 Bihar Panchayat and Lok Sabha Elections
- Congress Response and Internal Challenges
The LJP(RV) Minister’s Explosive Claim
Speaking to reporters in Patna, a cabinet minister from the Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas)—a key constituent of the NDA in Bihar—stated confidently: “After Makar Sankranti, you will see some Congress MLAs joining the NDA.” While he did not name specific legislators, his remarks were widely interpreted as more than mere speculation .
The LJP(RV), led by Union Minister Ram Chandra Paswan, has been a vocal advocate for expanding the NDA’s social coalition in Bihar. This latest comment aligns with the party’s broader push to marginalize smaller opposition groups and present the NDA as the only viable political force in the state.
Why Makar Sankranti Is a Political Turning Point
In Bihar’s political culture, festivals often serve as symbolic deadlines for major decisions. Makar Sankranti, celebrated around January 14–15, marks the end of winter and the beginning of longer days—making it an auspicious time for new beginnings.
Historically, politicians have used this period to announce alliances, resignations, or party switches. The timing allows defectors to frame their move as part of a “fresh start” rather than opportunism—a subtle but important distinction in voter perception.
Current Strength of Congress in Bihar Assembly
As of early 2026, the Indian National Congress holds just two seats in the 243-member Bihar Legislative Assembly—down from 27 in 2010 . This dramatic decline has left the party struggling to maintain relevance in a state dominated by the NDA (BJP-JDU-LJP-RV) and the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-led opposition).
With such minimal representation, even the loss of one or two MLAs would effectively erase Congress’s legislative footprint in Bihar. Analysts suggest these remaining MLAs may feel increasingly isolated, especially with limited resources, media visibility, and organizational support.
Key Reasons for Potential Defection
- Lack of development funds and local influence under Congress banner.
- Better ministerial prospects within the ruling NDA.
- Pressure from grassroots workers demanding alignment with a “winning side.”
- Perceived national decline of the Congress party post-2019.
NDA’s Strategy of Absorbing Opposition Leaders
This isn’t the first time the NDA has successfully poached legislators from rival camps. Over the past decade, both the BJP and JD(U) have systematically absorbed leaders from the RJD, RLSP, HAM, and now potentially Congress.
The strategy serves multiple purposes:
- Weakens opposition unity by fragmenting its leadership.
- Expands social base by bringing in leaders from diverse caste or regional backgrounds.
- Projects dominance—creating a perception that “everyone wants to join the NDA.”
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, known for his realpolitik, has repeatedly reshaped his coalition to stay in power. Adding Congress MLAs—even symbolically—could help the NDA appeal to urban and minority voters who still associate Congress with secularism .
Possible Impact on 2025 Bihar Panchayat and Lok Sabha Elections
While Bihar’s next assembly elections aren’t due until 2025, local body polls and national parliamentary dynamics are already heating up. A Congress collapse in the state legislature would:
- Free up Congress strongholds for NDA candidates in 2024–2025 contests.
- Demoralize Congress grassroots workers ahead of panchayat elections.
- Force the RJD-led opposition to absorb Congress voters—or risk losing them to the NDA.
Moreover, if these MLAs bring loyal vote banks with them, the NDA could gain critical ground in districts like Gaya, Bhagalpur, or Patna—areas where Congress once held sway.
Congress Response and Internal Challenges
So far, the Bihar Congress unit has dismissed the LJP(RV) minister’s claims as “baseless rumors.” State party chief Shakeel Ahmad stated, “Our MLAs are committed to the party’s ideology and will not abandon the people’s trust” .
Yet internal sources admit to growing anxiety. With no clear path to power and minimal central attention, local leaders feel abandoned. Without urgent intervention from national leadership—including funds, campaign support, and candidate assurances—the risk of defection remains high.
Conclusion
The claim that Congress MLAs join NDA after Makar Sankranti may be speculative—but it reflects a harsh reality: the Indian National Congress is on life support in Bihar. Whether this prophecy comes true or not, the very fact that such rumors gain traction underscores the party’s weakened state and the NDA’s relentless consolidation of power. As the festival approaches, all eyes will be on Patna—not just for sweets and kites, but for the next big political realignment. For more on shifting alliances in North India, see our deep dive on [INTERNAL_LINK:bihar-political-alliances-2026].